(Nairobi) – The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has rolled out a new strategy to protect its strongholds in Nyanza, Coast, and Western from President William Ruto’s political influence ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has developed a new strategy to safeguard its traditional strongholds in Nyanza, Coast, and Western regions from the growing political influence of President William Ruto. Party officials have expressed concerns that Ruto is using his political truce with ODM leader Raila Odinga to gain favor in these regions, potentially weakening Odinga’s influence as the 2027 General Election approaches.
Ruto won the 2022 presidential election largely with the backing of the Rift Valley and Mount Kenya regions, with Mount Kenya delivering nearly three million votes. However, political dynamics have shifted since then, particularly after the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, which has led to concerns that Mount Kenya may no longer be as reliable a voting bloc for Ruto. This has made the President more eager to expand his influence in other areas, particularly in regions traditionally dominated by ODM.
To counter this, ODM has planned several rallies and Thanksgiving events in its key regions, aimed at consolidating party support and reinforcing its grassroots presence. The party is also preparing for grassroots elections scheduled for November 27, 2024, which form part of a broader strategy to strengthen its organizational structure.
Next week, Raila Odinga will attend a rally and Thanksgiving ceremony in Kisii for Governor Simba Arati, who was recently appointed as one of the party’s deputy leaders. Additionally, Odinga will visit Vihiga County on December 1 for a similar event hosted by Senator Godfrey Osotsi. Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir has also planned a Thanksgiving event, with the date yet to be announced.
On November 10, ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga, also the governor of Homa Bay, hosted a Thanksgiving meeting attended by top party officials and Odinga himself. During this event, party leaders discussed their plans for the upcoming grassroots elections, emphasizing the importance of maintaining unity within the party.
Political encroachment by the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), the party led by President Ruto, has been a major topic of discussion within ODM. A meeting held between Odinga and ODM MPs from the Western region on November 19 in Nairobi focused on the party’s efforts to maintain control in this region. The meeting was attended by at least 25 party officials, including Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary), Governors Paul Otuoma (Busia) and Fernandes Barasa (Kakamega), ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, and Makadara MP George Aladwa.
In an interview, Osotsi mentioned that the meeting was primarily focused on preparations for the grassroots elections. Odinga and other ODM leaders have consistently denied claims of a coalition agreement with Ruto’s UDA, stating that while ODM has provided experts to the government, it has not formed any formal political alliance with the ruling party.
As part of its preparation for the grassroots elections, ODM has set up county elections committees across all 47 counties. The first phase of the elections will involve polling at the unit level, where party members will elect officials for various positions. The party aims to elect 30 officials at each polling unit, including members of the steering committee, women’s league, and youth league. Those running for positions will be required to pay a fee of KSh 100 (approximately $0.70).
The elections are expected to take place at gazetted polling stations across the country, with party members undergoing electronic verification to ensure the accuracy of the voter register. The elections are seen as a litmus test for ODM’s organizational strength ahead of the 2027 elections.
Party elections in ODM have been known to cause divisions and internal conflicts in the past, leading to major disagreements and fallouts. This history has made many political parties in Kenya wary of holding such elections, but ODM is pressing forward with its plans to ensure a smooth and inclusive process.
The first round of elections is set for November 27, 2024, and party officials are hopeful that the process will be peaceful and fair, with most members expected to reach a consensus when electing officials. However, the past experiences of divisive internal elections serve as a reminder that the upcoming process will be closely watched for any signs of disruption.
Table: ODM Grassroots Elections Details
| Position | Number of Officials to Be Elected | Fee (KSh) | Equivalent in USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling Unit Steering Committee | 10 | 100 | 0.70 |
| Polling Unit Women’s League | 10 | 100 | 0.70 |
| Polling Unit Youth League | 10 | 100 | 0.70 |