(Kyiv) – As Ukraine battles intensifying military challenges and European allies express growing concerns, U.S. President Joe Biden faces a critical 70-day window to bolster assistance for Kyiv before the anticipated transition to a Donald Trump-led administration threatens ongoing support. The stakes for Ukraine, Europe, and Biden’s legacy have never been higher.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion began, the United States has emerged as Ukraine’s largest benefactor, contributing $106 billion, with over half of that amount focused on military aid. American backing has been indispensable, making up 52% of global defense assistance to Kyiv. However, Trump’s potential return to the White House, coupled with his isolationist stance, has sparked fears of a sharp policy shift that could leave Ukraine vulnerable and force Europe to bear a larger burden.
Experts have warned of potential fallout. Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Centre for a New American Security, underlined the urgency of uninterrupted aid: “The Ukrainians can’t fight adequately absent U.S. military support.” This view is echoed by Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations, who stressed that Europe lacks the resources to fully replace U.S. assistance.
With the clock ticking, Biden has outlined a set of key measures to maximize support before the transition.
| Initiative | Details | Challenges |
|---|---|---|
| $6 Billion Aid Package | $4B in Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA); $2B via Congressional appropriations. | Delivery delays, possible reversal by incoming administration. |
| $20 Billion Asset Release | Seizing frozen Russian assets to directly fund Ukraine. | Resistance from European allies, logistical hurdles. |
| Long-Range Strike Authorization | Allow Ukraine to use Western weapons for deep strikes in Russia. | Escalation fears; divided European support. |
The Biden administration’s expedited $6 billion military aid package is a centerpiece of this push. Comprising $4 billion through PDA and $2 billion via prior appropriations, it underscores the U.S. commitment to helping Ukraine counter mounting Russian advances, including the presence of North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk region. However, Pentagon officials cautioned that delivery schedules and Trump’s potential reversal remain critical vulnerabilities.
Some experts advocate reallocating frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer urging Biden to release $20 billion before his term ends. Although feasible under existing laws, this step faces resistance from European nations like Germany and France, wary of retaliatory actions by Moscow.
Authorizing Ukraine to strike military targets deep within Russia using Western arms, such as British Storm Shadow missiles and American ATACMS, is another contentious proposal. While France and the U.K. back the move, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz opposes it, and Biden has so far been cautious, fearing escalation. Former U.S. officials argue this authorization could significantly enhance Ukraine’s battlefield position without provoking nuclear retaliation from Russia.
Iran sanctions may also take center stage. With Tehran supporting Moscow’s war effort through drones and ballistic missiles, Biden’s administration is weighing sanctions that could reduce Iranian oil exports and limit its military supply chains. Coordinated action could serve dual objectives: weakening Russia and curtailing Iranian influence in the Middle East.
Oil price caps, designed to slash Russia’s war revenue, are under consideration but face logistical and international hurdles. Experts suggest lowering the cap to $30 per barrel, a move that could disrupt Moscow’s funding streams but risks market instability.
Biden’s final days may also involve strategic communication with Trump’s transition team. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan emphasized the importance of persuading the incoming administration to sustain support for Ukraine, though Trump allies like Senator Bill Hagerty argue for prioritizing domestic concerns. Trump’s strained relations with NATO and isolationist rhetoric during his first term have added to European unease.
The European Union has allocated €118 billion to Ukraine since 2022 but relies heavily on U.S. military support. Analysts have warned that without American backing, European nations will struggle to provide advanced systems like F-16s and long-range missiles. Amid political turmoil in Germany and France, Europe’s position appears increasingly precarious.
Biden’s actions in the coming weeks will not only shape Ukraine’s future but also cement his administration’s legacy. As international analysts emphasize, this critical 70-day window could determine the trajectory of the war and European stability for years to come.